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Excess mortality across countries in the Western World since COVID-19 pandemic (BMJ Public Health)

Topic
social sciences
Categories
economics
Reading Time 4 min
Abstract

Ever wondered if excess mortality exists since COVID-19 pandemic? This study examines excess mortality in 47 Western World countries from 2020 to 2022 using the "Our World in Data" database and the Karlinsky and Kobak model.

Tags
social-scienceseconomics19acrossbmjcountriescovidexcess

Ever wondered if excess mortality exists since COVID-19 pandemic? This study examines excess mortality in 47 Western World countries from 2020 to 2022 using the “Our World in Data” database and the Karlinsky and Kobak model. Despite containment measures and vaccination efforts, excess mortality remained high for three consecutive years, peaking in 2021. The study highlights challenges in attributing causes, including direct COVID-19 deaths, the effects of containment policies, and vaccine-related factors. It emphasizes the need for better data sharing and transparency to analyze persistent excess mortality and improve public health policies.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Section titled “Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)”

  1. What is excess mortality, and how is it measured? Excess mortality refers to the difference between the observed number of deaths and the expected number of deaths in a specific period. It helps assess the overall impact of events like pandemics on a population’s health, going beyond deaths directly attributed to a specific cause. To measure excess mortality, researchers compare the total deaths during a crisis period to a baseline of expected deaths under normal circumstances. This baseline is calculated using historical death data and considers factors like seasonal variations, population trends, and long-term health improvements.

  2. How has excess mortality trended in the Western World from 2020 to 2022? Worryingly, excess mortality has remained persistently high across the Western World for three consecutive years (2020-2022) despite implementing containment measures and COVID-19 vaccination programs.

    • 2020: 1,033,122 excess deaths (11.4% above expected)
    • 2021: 1,256,942 excess deaths (13.8% above expected)
    • 2022: 808,392 excess deaths (8.8% above expected) - preliminary data

    This trend indicates a concerning and sustained impact on population health beyond deaths directly attributed to COVID-19.

  3. What are the possible contributing factors to this persistent excess mortality? While COVID-19 infections directly contributed to excess deaths, particularly in the early stages of the pandemic, several other factors likely play a role:

    • Indirect effects of containment measures: Lockdowns, school closures, and healthcare disruptions may have led to delayed diagnoses, reduced access to care, and worsened mental health, contributing to deaths from other causes.
    • Impact of COVID-19 vaccination programs: While vaccination undoubtedly saved lives, concerns remain about potential adverse events, including serious conditions and deaths.
    • Undetermined causes: Data limitations and variations in reporting hinder definitive conclusions. Further research is needed to determine the extent to which each factor contributes to excess mortality.

  4. What are the recommendations for addressing the issue of persistent excess mortality? Improve data transparency and reporting. Research long-term effects of pandemic measures and vaccine safety. Address broader health impacts in pandemic preparedness.

  5. Where can I find more information about excess mortality data and research?

Significance

Section titled “Significance”

Understanding these findings helps advance our knowledge and inform better decisions. This research represents an important contribution to the field. For the full details, watch the video above and explore the linked resources.

Resources & Further Watching

Section titled “Resources & Further Watching”
  • Read the paper written by Saskia Mostert, Marcel Hoogland, Minke Huibers, Gertjan Kaspers
  • Read about excess mortality: Deaths from all causes compared to average over previous years
  • Read about excess mortality during the Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19)

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Youtube Hashtags

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#covid19impact #pandemicanalysis #mortalitystatistics

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excess mortality across countries in the western world since covid 19 pandemic bmj public health

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