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Germany’s 2025 Election Who Will Form the Next Government?

Ever wondered how Germany’s 2025 election will reshape its political landscape? This analysis uses AI-driven embeddings to map party shifts and coalition options. Watch now for deep insights into the upcoming election!

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

  1. What caused the early federal elections in Germany in February 2025? The snap elections were triggered by the collapse of the “Ampel” coalition (SPD, Greens, and FDP) in November 2024, just over three years after it was formed. This breakdown prompted the need for new elections to determine the next government.

  2. How was the analysis of the 2025 election programmes conducted, and how did it differ from the 2021 analysis? The analysis employed Large Language Models (LLMs) and embedding techniques to assess the parties’ platforms. Similar to the 2021 analysis, the core process involved converting election programmes into vectors, reducing the dimensionality of these vectors using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and then analysing the distances between the programmes. However, unlike the 2021 analysis, the 2025 analysis benefited from advancements in LLMs, allowing for direct vectorisation of entire election programmes, rather than the need to divide them into smaller sections. Moreover, the 2021 method focused on content categories, the current model also considers content positioning.

  3. What is the significance of using embeddings and dimensionality reduction in analysing political programmes? Embeddings convert textual data (like election programmes) into numerical vectors, representing them as points in a high-dimensional space. Texts with similar content are placed closer together, while dissimilar texts are farther apart. Dimensionality reduction, using PCA, simplifies this representation by projecting the vectors onto a two-dimensional plane, allowing for visual identification of similarities and differences between the parties’ platforms. This helps to assess the ideological proximity and potential for cooperation or conflict.

  4. According to the analysis, which parties have shifted their positions the most since 2021, and towards which direction? The AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) showed the most significant change in its election programme between 2021 and 2025. Most parties, with the exception of the SPD (Social Democratic Party), have moved towards the political centre. The SPD has slightly drifted away from the centre.

  5. What does the “distance matrix” of election programmes reveal about potential coalition formations? The distance matrix indicates the ideological divergence between parties’ platforms. A higher sum of distances for a party suggests it has a more divergent programme, making coalition formation more challenging. Conversely, a lower sum suggests a more centrist position and greater coalition potential. The BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht), in its first election, appears to have strategically positioned its platform centrally to maximise coalition options.

  6. Based on the analysis and current polls, what are the most likely coalition options after the 2025 election? Based on current poll results, the most likely coalition options include a Union-SPD (Schwarz-Rot) coalition or a Union-Green-BSW coalition. The feasibility and stability of these coalitions depend on their parliamentary majority and the degree of policy overlap and compromise required. For example, some polls suggest the Union-SPD coalition would have only a narrow majority, weakening the Union’s bargaining position.

  7. How did the analysis assess the difficulty of coalition negotiations and subsequent government work? It sums the distances between reduced embedding points of party platforms—greater sums indicate larger policy gaps, tougher talks, and potential instability.

  8. How has the Union’s (CDU/CSU) position changed from 2021 to 2025 regarding potential coalition partners? The distance between the Union and most other parties has decreased from 2021 to 2025, including the FDP, AfD, Greens, SPD and Linke. Despite this, a coalition with the Greens and/or SPD is looked at most favourably within the Union.

Resources & Further Watching

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